chapitre 9 Conclusion

9-3 L'avenir de la modélisation en science politique

Nous pensons qu'il est important d'augmenter les ressources pour la modélisation en science politique. Sans avoir de structures de recherches similaires à celles des sciences naturelles, le programme dont nous nous faisons l'avocat ne pourra sans doute jamais vraiment commencer.

L'acteur humain possède une rationalité limitée. Il existe un certain nombre de techniques intéressantes de modélisation de l'acteur quasi-rationnel utilisant des théories de choix comme celles discutées dans la section 3-2.2 "Modèles de choix à rationalité limitée" [p. 63]. D'autres se sont inspirées des travaux en intelligence artificielle, notamment un certain nombre de recherches en IA et relations internationales (discutées dans la section 4-5 "La modélisation IA de la décision en science politique" [p. 154]). La critique très percutante venant des psychologies ou sociologies phénoménologiques*1 discutée dans la section 7-1 "Les bases épistémologiques de l'intelligence artificielle" [p. 274] montre que même les approches "quasi-rationnelles" ont leurs limites. Selon cette littérature, le vécu ne peut pas être modélisé dans le sens de la psychologie de l'information. Il y a une différence fondamentale entre un savoir (ce qui peut être transmis) et l'expérience (ce qui se passe lors d'une décision).

Toutefois, ce constat n'implique pas l'abandon mais la réorientation de la notion de modèle et la réinterprétation des problèmes. La complexité et l'impénétrabilité scientifique des décideurs sont d'abord plutôt une bonne chose dans le sens où elles nous garantissent une vie et pas seulement une existence. Ensuite, il est possible de faire progresser nos connaissances. Il existe aujourd'hui une littérature assez importante se prononçant en faveur des méthodes systémiques et du traitement de l'information. Mais comme le montre le sort des grands classiques comme "The Nerves of Government" (Deutsch 66) ou encore ce travail-ci, on ne peut plus faire de la recherche d'une grande portée thématique en profondeur dans de petits groupes instables. Les modèles globaux quantitatifs ou encore les modélisations IA en relations internationales ont cruellement démontré le besoin en "men" et "power" pour aller au-delà d'une amorce.

Si la science politique veut éviter le sort de la psychologie expérimentale cognitive (micro-théories incompatibles avec une grande qualité scientifique), de l'économie politique (micro-théories difficilement applicables avec une grande rigueur scientifique), de l'analyse des politiques publiques (monographies riches non généralisables), de la philosophie politique (répétition de vieux problèmes philosophiques dans un autre langage), elle doit suivre l'exemple de la biologie ou de la physique qui mettent en place des structures de recherche adaptées à la complexité du sujet. Sinon il reste le choix entre la micro-théorie (études des comportements politiques), la simplicité (monographies journalistiques) ou la fuite (modèles économiques de la politique).

La fonction du modèle n'est pas auxiliaire (pour tester des hypothèses ou pour réduire la complexité des observations). Le modèle est central à toute démarche scientifique concernée par une réalité complexe. Par ailleurs, il doit se développer au sein d'un cadre théorique riche et complet. Voici donc la formule:

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